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Match predictions

Each probability comes from a Dixon–Coles model fit on more than 27,000 real matches, recalculated every day.

Dixon–Coles score probability field derived from the active model

Track record

Every prediction, kept on record

Settled after each match · Public permanently · Never edited
Matches settled
0
Result accuracy (1X2)
Last updated
Awaiting first settlement

Model: dc-1.2

Not enough data yet: with fewer than 100 settled matches, the numbers — high or low — don't yet say much about performance.

Each prediction is settled automatically after the match and kept on record without edits. The first covered fixtures kick off on 15 August 2026; their published predictions enter the live record as they settle.

View the full record

Benchmarks

The same matches, measured against four benchmarks

2019/20–2025/26 · the same 16,322 matches with Bet365 closing data

Random pick of three33.3%
Always the home team43.0%
WinSight (walk-forward backtest)50.2%
Bet365 closing favourite52.4%

On the same 16,322 matches, WinSight trails Bet365 by 2.16 percentage points. Public forecasts rarely beat closing odds, and we make no such claim. These are backtest figures, not live results.

About WinSight

Most prediction sites show you the times they were right. I wanted to build the opposite: publish the prediction for every match, settle it honestly once the match is over, and keep it on record — right or wrong — for anyone to check.

One thing worth stating plainly: I don't claim to beat the bookmakers. Closing odds already reflect almost everything the market knows, and no public forecaster reliably beats them. What I can do is keep the numbers honest and well-calibrated, and never edit or remove a result once it's published.

— Alex, WinSight